A general view shows the plenum at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

On Oct. 27, approximately 7.3 million eligible Israeli voters will pick one paper slip out of a tray of party ballots, seal it in an envelope, and go home. Who governs gets decided after that — nobody in Israel actually votes for prime minister. It all comes down to one number: 61.

Sixty-one is a majority of the 120-seat Knesset. Strictly, a new government only needs more yes votes than no votes (because abstentions don’t count). Naftali Bennett’s government was confirmed 60 to 59 in 2021, with an abstention. But 61 is what it takes to govern without leaning on somebody else’s abstention.

Israelis have voted five times since April 2019. Yet, only once did the count produce a clear 61. Benjamin Netanyahu and the parties that ran as his partners won 60 seats in April 2019, and Avigdor Lieberman, with five more, wouldn’t join them. Then 55 that September, 58 the next March, and 52 in 2021. In 2022, they won 64.

Daniel Pomerantz walked through how the system works in these pages in July, starting from a line worth keeping in your head: “No one wins a majority in Israel. Ever.” Three weeks out, here’s where it stands.

The rules that matter this time

The threshold. A list needs 3.25 percent of the valid vote to win anything, so four seats is the smallest delegation there is. On this year’s voter roll of 7,331,981, at the last election’s turnout, that works out to somewhere around 165,000 to 170,000 votes. Fall a few thousand short and each one of those votes is thrown away.

In 2022, about 417,000 ballots, close to 9 percent of the valid vote, went to lists that didn’t make it. Meretz missed by less than a tenth of a point. Balad missed too.

Surplus-vote deals. Two lists can pool their leftover votes for the last seats. Yisrael Beytenu has signed one with Bennett’s list, and Eisenkot’s Yashar! with the Democrats. The filing deadline is Oct. 16.

You have to be there. Israelis abroad get no absentee or mail ballot. Diplomats and a short list of state envoys vote at missions on Oct. 15. Everyone else flies home or doesn’t vote.

Where the polls stand

Nineteen seat polls came out between September 22 and October 7, from Channels 12, 13, 14, and 16, Kan, Maariv, i24NEWS, and Zman Yisrael. Two lists lead, and they’re close. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! sits at 20 to 23 seats in every one of those polls. Likud’s median is 21. Its range runs from 18 to 32, and that spread is mostly one pollster. Channel 14 has Likud at 31 or 32, and i24NEWS at 27 or 28. Everyone else has it between 18 and 21 — Maariv’s own poll of polls on October 4 put Yashar! at 21.7 and Likud at 19.7, and Channel 13 had the two tied at 20 on October 7.

Likud and the parties it governed with after 2022 — Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit — have reached 61 in thirteen of the 92 polls we counted since August. All thirteen were Channel 14, the latest 63 on October 7. The median over the last two weeks is still 49, down from 51 at the start of September. Add Ofer Winter’s new list, which has committed to recommending Netanyahu, and you get to the low 50s, when Winter clears the threshold at all. He’s the swing in this week’s numbers. Channel 13 put him at five seats on October 7, which took Netanyahu’s side to 55, the best Channel 13 has given it since August. Without Winter’s five, it’s 50. Two days earlier Channel 12 had him at 1.5 percent, under the line, and Netanyahu’s side at 49.

The four opposition parties that signed a coordination pact on September 26 — Yashar!, Together, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats — sit around 52. Those four were at 57 at the start of September. Channel 13 had them at 50 on October 7, their lowest in its polls since August, and Channel 12 had them at 54 two days before. Not one of the 92 polls puts the opposition at 61 on its own. Three Maariv polls got there by also counting Yoaz Hendel’s list (the latest in September), and that list is hovering at the threshold. With the two Arab parties, it’s 64.

Head to head, the numbers depend on who asks. Channel 13 had Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu 44 to 40 on October 7 as better suited to be prime minister, and Channel 12 had it 41 to 38 on October 5. Channel 14 had Netanyahu ahead 52 to 48, down from 54 to 46 in its previous poll.

The parties, their leaders, and what they stand for

Thirty-eight lists made the ballot. Thirteen of them clear the threshold in at least some polls. Here they are by camp, with the median seat count from the 15 polls above, and what each says it’s for, in its own words where possible.

Likud and its 2022 partners

Likud — Benjamin Netanyahu. About 21 seats. On a Palestinian state: “As long as I am prime minister, there will be no Palestinian state controlled by Iran — neither in Gaza nor in Judea and Samaria,” he said in August. He has told Itamar Ben-Gvir that a new government of his would be built on the current one, and his campaign casts the race as a straight choice: “There is no straight. Yashar is a bluff. There’s either left or right,” his September video says.

Shas — Aryeh Deri, with Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef as spiritual leader. About 8. Legal protection for full-time Torah study, Orthodox control of marriage and conversion through the Chief Rabbinate, and help for lower-income families. It backs dismantling Hamas and opposes indefinite Israeli control of Gaza (Jerusalem Post). Deri said in July, “We support Netanyahu, period.” Rabbi Yosef has said he could be open to a government led by Eisenkot.

United Torah Judaism — Yaakov Asher, running Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah together. About 8. The same religion-and-state agenda as Shas, plus more housing for Haredi families (Jerusalem Post). Agudat Yisrael’s Yitzhak Goldknopf has set the condition: no support for any government without a draft law “without sanctions and without quotas.”

Religious Zionism–Zehut — Bezalel Smotrich, running with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut. About 6. Sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and an end to “the disastrous idea of dividing the land,” a restructured judiciary, and lower food prices through dairy reform. Smotrich has ruled out relying on Arab parties to form a government (Jerusalem Post).

Otzma Yehudit — Itamar Ben-Gvir, with Tally Gotliv, formerly of Likud, at number two. About 8. Offensive action against terrorism in place of what Ben-Gvir calls “containment,” complete military victory over Hamas, sovereignty, and a September plan, “Disengagement 710,” to encourage Gazans to emigrate. He opposes a unity government with opposition parties (Jerusalem Post).

Amcha Yisrael (“Your People, Israel”) — Ofer Winter, a retired brigadier general, with Yoseph Haddad at number two. About 4, at the threshold. Will recommend only Netanyahu, won’t join a government unless a conscription law passes before it’s sworn in, and calls for voluntary emigration from Gaza: “There will be a decision here, not containment” (Jerusalem Post).

The opposition pact

Yashar! — Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff, with former Shin Bet head Yoram Cohen and Chili Tropper. About 22. “There is no Palestinian state, and under a government we form, no Palestinian state will be established,” he wrote in August. Universal service with a small exemption, and an inquiry into Oct. 7 that reaches back 10 years (Jerusalem Post). His partners have to accept his principles, universal service among them.

Together — Naftali Bennett, with Yair Lapid on the same list. About 11. On the draft: “You serve, you get. You don’t serve, you don’t get anything. Not a shekel.” Bennett opposes a Palestinian state and says he won’t repeat 2021’s partnership with Ra’am (Jerusalem Post).

Yisrael Beytenu — Avigdor Lieberman. About 8. Universal conscription, civil marriage, public transportation on Shabbat, and “decisive outcomes” against Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. He won’t serve under Netanyahu “even if the world turns upside down,” and rules out both the Haredi and the Arab parties (Jerusalem Post).

The Democrats — Yair Golan, leading the 2024 merger of Labor and Meretz. About 9. A bar on anyone under indictment serving as prime minister or a minister (“zero criminal defendants”), backing for the attorney general, civil marriage, and businesses open on Shabbat where the law allows (Jerusalem Post). Golan calls Jewish-Arab partnership in government “absolutely our future.”

The Arab parties

Ra’am — Mansour Abbas, with Yoav Segalovitz, formerly of Yesh Atid, as the first Jewish candidate on an Arab party’s list. About 5. Ra’am is the only Arab party ever to join a coalition, in the Bennett–Lapid government of 2021, and wants to use a seat at the table to fight crime and fund housing and development in Arab towns (Jerusalem Post).

The Joint List — Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, led by Yousef Jabareen. About 7. Progress toward a Palestinian state, equality for Arab citizens, action on organized crime, and bigger budgets for Arab towns (Jerusalem Post). Jabareen rules out joining a coalition but hasn’t ruled out backing one from outside.

Getting onto the ballot was a fight. On Sept. 23 the Central Elections Committee voted to bar both lists, and on Oct. 2 the High Court reinstated them unanimously. Balad’s chairman, Sami Abu Shehadeh, withdrew after the court signaled it would uphold his own disqualification. Petitions against lists on the other side went nowhere. The committee declined to bar Otzma Yehudit, and on Oct. 4 the High Court dismissed the Democrats’ petition against Ben-Gvir on procedural grounds.

On the line

The Reservists–Economic Party — Yoaz Hendel, now running with economist Yaron Zelekha. About 4. Will join only a “Zionist government,” and only once a universal conscription law has passed.

Blue and White — Benny Gantz. Below the threshold in every published media poll (Maariv). “We need a Zionist government that crosses the blocs,” he says. He told The Times of Israel he’ll drop out in the final week if he’s still short. On Saturday night he told supporters the party had checked the data and was staying in.

Who will sit with whom

Put the red lines side by side and 61 gets difficult for everyone. Bennett, Eisenkot, and Lieberman have all ruled out depending on an Arab party, and Golan is the only pact leader who has said the opposite. Lieberman won’t sit with Netanyahu or with the Haredi parties. Eisenkot has said he’d take Shas if it accepts his principles.

On the other side, the hard question is the draft. United Torah Judaism wants a law with no sanctions and no quotas. Winter wants a conscription law passed first. Netanyahu’s cabinet secretary, Yossi Fuchs, said in July that anyone expecting the Haredim to get “a blank page without sanctions” in the next term shouldn’t count on it. Haredi sources told The Jerusalem Post last month that the parties may recommend no one at all, and spend a year in opposition.

So the realistic paths to 61 run through one of three doors: a Haredi party crossing over, an Arab party lending outside support, or the small lists falling below the threshold. That last one would shrink the number of votes that count and push everyone’s seat totals up.

In Part Two of this article tomorrow, I will discuss the issues at stake, what happens after the vote, and what to watch for on election night.

Uriel Zehavi is Managing Director of the Mitzpe Institute (mitzpe.org) and writes the Israel Brief (israelbrief.com), Monday to Thursday. He is the author of four books, most recently Rooted in Judea: Lives and Law in the Heart of Israel.