An Israeli flag and an American flag fly at Abu Dhabi International Airport before the arrival of Israeli and US officials, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Aug. 31, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Christoper Pike

A new poll from New York Times/Siena reveals a stark generational divide in the US over Israel, with younger Americans increasingly sympathetic to the Palestinians and older voters remaining substantially more supportive of the Jewish state and continuing US military aid.

The poll shows that the country remains closely divided overall even as younger Americans have moved sharply toward the Palestinian side. Among likely voters, 39 percent say they sympathize more with Israel, compared with 36 percent who sympathize more with the Palestinians. Another 12 percent sympathize with both sides equally, while 13 percent declined to answer or said they did not know.

The poll also reveals that just 16 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 say they sympathize more with Israel, compared with 63 percent who sympathize more with the Palestinians. Among voters 65 and older, however, the numbers nearly flip, with 50 percent sympathizing more with Israel compared with 27 percent who sympathize more with the Palestinians. The result represents a 47-point Palestinian advantage among the youngest voters, compared with a 23-point Israeli advantage among the oldest.

Forty-five percent of 18-to-29-year-olds say they sympathize “strongly” with the Palestinians, compared with only 10 percent who strongly sympathize with Israel. Among voters 65 and older, the pattern is reversed, with 36 percent saying they “strongly” sympathize with Israel, compared with 15 percent who strongly sympathize with the Palestinians.

The findings come amid a broader deterioration in American sympathy for Israel. Gallup reported in February that, for the first time in its long-running annual trend, Americans overall no longer expressed greater sympathy for Israelis than Palestinians, revealing that 41 percent sympathized more with Palestinians and 36 percent with Israelis. Gallup nevertheless found that 46 percent of Americans viewed Israel favorably, compared with 37 percent for the Palestinians.

Despite the growing Palestinian sympathy among younger Americans, the Times/Siena poll does not show a national consensus for cutting US military assistance to Israel. Asked whether they would rather vote for a candidate who supports or opposes military aid to Israel, 36 percent chose a candidate who supports the aid and 37 percent chose one who opposes it. Twenty-three percent said it does not matter either way.

The age divide, however, is again enormous. Among voters ages 18 to 29, only 15 percent prefer a candidate who supports military aid to Israel, while 62 percent prefer one who opposes it. Among voters 65 and older, the numbers are almost exactly reversed with 50 percent preferring a candidate who supports military aid, compared with 22 percent who favor one who opposes it.

The result suggests that support for America’s military relationship with Israel remains substantial among the older electorate even as opposition has become dominant among younger voters.

Among Democrats, 53 percent prefer a candidate who opposes military aid to Israel, while only 17 percent prefer one who supports it. Among Republicans, 67 percent favor a candidate who supports military aid, compared with only 9 percent who favor one who opposes it.

Independents fall considerably closer to Democrats, with 45 percent favoring a candidate who opposes military aid and 28 percent expressing positivity toward one who supports it.

Israel’s strongest support in the Times/Siena data comes from older and white voters. Among white voters, 45 percent sympathize more with Israel, compared with 33 percent who sympathize more with the Palestinians.

Among white voters with college degrees, Palestinians enjoy an edge of 39 percent to 38 percent. White voters without college degrees are much less divided, supporting Israel at a rate of 50 percent to 27 percent.

Among Democratic voters, just 18 percent sympathize more with Israel, while 59 percent sympathize more with the Palestinians. Among Republicans, the numbers are almost completely reversed, with 77 percent sympathizing more with Israel, compared with only 6 percent who sympathize more with the Palestinians. Independents lean toward the Palestinians, 42 percent to 26 percent.

The poll also finds that Democrats have a substantial advantage when voters are asked which party they trust to handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with 49 percent choosing the Democratic Party, compared with 38 percent who choose the Republican Party.

Taken together, the three questions point to a significant long-term challenge for Israel’s standing in American public opinion. The youngest voters are overwhelmingly more sympathetic to Palestinians, strongly opposed to military aid to Israel, and substantially more likely to trust Democrats on the conflict. Older voters, by contrast, remain considerably more sympathetic to Israel and substantially more supportive of American military assistance.

Israel’s standing within the Democratic Party has dramatically deteriorated in the three years of the Israel-Hamas war. Though initially supportive and sympathetic toward Israel, Democratic Party voters quickly soured on the Jewish state as the war in Gaza raged on. A supermajority of the Democratic electorate believes Israel has committed a so-called “genocide” in Gaza, according to a variety of polls.