Members of Hamas cracking down on Gazans. Photo: Screenshot from X account of Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib

As destruction from its war with Israel continues to reshape life in Gaza, Hamas is facing a growing reckoning among Palestinians, with support for the terrorist group falling sharply even as most still oppose its disarmament before Israel withdraws from the war-torn enclave, according to a new poll.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, an independent Palestinian polling and research institute, released a survey on Wednesday showing a significant decline in support for Hamas, underscoring growing disillusionment with the ruling terrorist group as the war’s devastation continues to impact life for Gazans.

Compared to 10 months ago, confidence in Hamas’s ability to represent Palestinians has plunged from 41 percent to 28 percent, while more than 40 percent say neither Hamas nor its rival Fatah should lead, highlighting a widening political void and growing disillusionment with the Palestinian leadership.

In less than a year, Hamas has lost more than 10 percentage points in popular support, with the decline particularly stark in the West Bank, where backing has fallen from 32 percent to 18 percent, while support in Gaza has dropped by eight percentage points to 33 percent.

Among the survey’s most striking findings is that the shift away from Hamas has not translated into a clear embrace of the Palestinian Authority, with substantial numbers of Palestinians expressing disillusionment with both major movements and saying neither deserves to represent or lead them.

The findings come just months before November’s planned parliamentary election, with widespread skepticism already casting doubt on whether Palestinians expect the vote to produce a meaningful political change.

Only 49 percent of respondents expect the upcoming election to be held on schedule, while two-thirds doubt that it would be free and fair, pointing to deep distrust in the process.

When it comes to the war in Gaza, the devastation and mounting regional tensions also appear to be reshaping Palestinian attitudes toward armed struggle, with the poll showing a vast majority now favoring negotiations to end what they describe as Israeli occupation and pursue Palestinian statehood.

Compared with a year ago, Palestinian support for armed struggle as the most effective path to statehood has fallen from 41 percent to 27 percent, while support for negotiations has climbed from 36 percent to 44 percent, reaching its highest level in four years.

However, the shift toward negotiations does not signal a wholesale rejection of armed resistance or renewed confidence in peace, as 50 percent still believe armed resistance has been effective and nearly 60 percent say a two-state solution is no longer practical.

A majority of Palestinians also continue to reject Hamas disarming before a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, with 72 percent opposing disarmament under those conditions and roughly the same share believing it would lead to renewed fighting rather than an Israeli withdrawal.

Most Palestinians also view the expansion of Israeli settlements as a threat to the prospects of a two-state solution, while expressing deep distrust in both Palestinian and Israeli leadership.

According to PCPSR’s latest data, only 20 percent now believe Hamas won the war, down from roughly 40% 10 months earlier, while 60 percent say neither side emerged victorious, suggesting that the conflict has failed to produce a clear sense of political triumph even as Hamas’s standing among Palestinians continues to weaken.