Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat now running for US Senate in Michigan, speaks at a “Hands Off” protest at the state Capitol in Lansing, Michigan, on April 5, 2025. Photo: Andrew Roth/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

Abdul el-Sayed, the Democrats’ far-left, anti-Israel nominee for US Senate in Michigan, appears to be facing an uphill challenge, according to a new poll, which found Republican nominee Mike Rogers holding a narrow lead in one of the country’s most closely watched election contests.

The Fox News poll showed that Rogers currently holds a 51 percent to 47 percent edge over El-Sayed. Analysts suggest that the results indicate that El-Sayed might struggle to translate a primary victory driven by the party’s progressive base into support across a closely divided battleground state.

The survey, conducted from Aug. 6-10 among 1,006 registered Michigan voters, showed Rogers benefiting from stronger Republican unity. Ninety-six percent of Republicans said they support Rogers, compared with 91 percent of Democrats who support El-Sayed.

However, among Democrats not aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) as well as independents, El-Sayed’s support falls considerably, with 69 percent backing him. Sensing discontent among some Democrats over the selection of a far-left nominee, Rogers has sought to entice moderate liberals to support his campaign.

Michigan has become one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds, with presidential elections decided by narrow margins in recent cycles. US President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2024 by less than two percentage points, while Joe Biden won it by nearly three points in 2020.

El-Sayed’s fierce opposition to Israel has emerged as one of his most well-known policy positions — and could prove to be a vulnerability among more centrist Democrats and independents.

The poll found that 55 percent of Michigan voters oppose continued US military assistance to the Israeli government, compared with 44 percent who favor it. The issue sharply divides voters, with those favoring aid backing Rogers by 45 points, while those who oppose assistance supporting El-Sayed by 29 points.

The progressive candidate ran as a sharp critic of US policy toward Israel and called for an end to military aid. His primary campaign attracted support from progressive national figures while drawing opposition from establishment Democrats and pro-Israel organizations. He ultimately defeated Rep. Haley Stevens by less than one percentage point.

The Israel question may also carry particular significance among Michigan’s Jewish electorate. Following El-Sayed’s primary victory, some Jewish Democrats have expressed concerns about his approach to Israel and have indicated that they could support Rogers in November. Fox News has reported that some longtime Democratic voters view Israel policy as increasingly intertwined with questions of Jewish security and the political direction of the Democratic Party.

El-Sayed, a physician and former Wayne County health official, has accused Israel of genocide and apartheid, called it a “rogue state,” and argued that its government and the Hamas terrorist organization are both “evil.”

He has also questioned US support for maintaining Israel as a specifically Jewish state, stating that there is no interpretation of a Jewish state that can be compatible with liberal values. He further sparked anger by asserting that the only reason a Democrat could support Israel is because of money, and that it is impossible for a Democrat to support Israel and believe in “human rights.”

El-Sayed’s relentless broadside attacks against the character and legitimacy of Israel have incensed large segments of the Michigan Jewish community, raising questions over whether the reliably Democratic voting base will cast a ballot for El-Sayed in November.

Three prominent Jewish Democratic bundlers — Hannan Lis, Brian Hermelin, and Rob Orley — are planning to fundraise on behalf of Rogers, according to reporting by Jewish Insider. Though they admitted they do not agree with Rogers on a variety of issues, El-Sayed’s animus toward Israel and approach to the Jewish community have left them alienated.

“This is something that none of us has ever done,” Lis told Jewish Insider. “But we feel this is a departure in the direction of the Democratic Party.”

Eric Levine, a top Republican fundraiser, said that the Rogers campaign is currently “making a direct appeal to the Jewish community,” with a focus on moderate Democratic Jews disaffected by the anti-Israel posture of El-Sayed.

El-Sayed performs better among Michigan’s most politically engaged voters. According to the Fox News poll, he leads Rogers by 11 points among voters who say they are extremely interested in the election, by seven points among those who are extremely motivated, and by four points among voters who say they are certain to vote. Democrats also report higher levels of enthusiasm and motivation than Republicans.

The Senate contest also looks markedly different from Michigan’s gubernatorial race, signaling that the progressive firebrand may be weighing down the Democratic ticket.

According to the poll, 54 percent of voters are either “very concerned” or “extremely concerned” that El-Sayed is “too extreme” for the US Senate.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 52 percent to 47 percent in the same Fox News poll. Benson performs substantially better than El-Sayed among non-DSA Democrats and independents, winning 81 percent of those voters compared with El-Sayed’s 69 percent.

There is already evidence of potential ticket splitting. Rogers supporters are nearly three times as likely to cross over and support Benson as El-Sayed supporters are to support James.

For Republicans, that offers an opportunity to portray Rogers as a more acceptable alternative for voters who remain uncomfortable with the Democratic nominee’s ideological profile.

For Democrats, meanwhile, the poll underscores the need to consolidate voters who supported El-Sayed in the primary without alienating the independents and moderate Democrats who could ultimately determine the general election.

With the Senate majority potentially hanging in the balance, Michigan’s four-point race is likely to attract enormous national attention.