Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Sept. 17, 2025. Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS

As joint US-Saudi airstrikes target Iranian proxies in Iraq following a fresh wave of regional aggression, Riyadh continues to play a calculated game of evasion. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) eagerly seeks Western security guarantees and Israeli diplomatic partnership, yet he consistently recoils from hitting the Iranian regime where it actually hurts.

For Israel, this persistent Saudi passivity represents far more than mere diplomatic frustration. It is a structural threat to achieving lasting security and decisive deterrence in the Middle East.

The fragile lull in the region has been shattered once again, giving way to another fierce cycle of escalation that highlights the strategic paralysis gripping Arab capitals. Following an attempted attack on American forces and drone strikes targeting critical petroleum infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, joint American and Saudi fighter jets launched precision air raids against Popular Mobilization Forces bases in eastern Iraq. At least 20 militia fighters were killed, Jordanian air defenses intercepted incoming missiles, and global crude oil prices surged dramatically.

Yet Saudi Arabia has once again chosen to strike the distant limbs of the Iranian proxy network while deliberately sparing the head of the octopus in Tehran. By limiting its military response to localized defensive strikes against Iraqi paramilitaries, Riyadh demonstrates the exact strategic timidity that has allowed Iran to construct its aggressive ring of fire across the region over two decades.

The Saudi kingdom wraps itself in UN self-defense clauses to justify strikes in Iraq, yet it continues to hedge and delay whenever direct confrontation with Iran looms. For America and the entire region, this hesitation poses a serious problem.

To understand the deep flaws in the Saudi posture, one must examine the mechanics of this latest escalation. Tehran felt emboldened enough to direct its Iraqi proxies against targets inside Saudi Arabia and launch weapons toward US assets. In response, Riyadh agreed to join air raids over Baghdad, Nineveh, and Kirkuk. Hitting proxy storage facilities and command posts in Iraq provides impressive headline material for international media, but it changes almost nothing in the overarching strategic equation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps views its foreign proxies as disposable assets. By playing strictly within these soft rules of engagement, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signals to the Supreme Leader that Iranian sovereign territory remains safe.

This reluctance to hit Iran directly stems from a fundamental economic calculation inside the royal palace in Riyadh.

Mohammed bin Salman has staked his entire legacy on Vision 2030, a grand economic transformation meant to turn Saudi Arabia into a global hub for business, tourism, and technology. A direct military exchange with Tehran threatens to shatter that fragile economic facade, send international investors fleeing, and expose Saudi mega-projects to devastating Iranian ballistic missile volleys. Consequently, the Crown Prince seeks to enjoy all the privileges of a regional superpower without bearing any of the existential risks. He demands ironclad American defense commitments and covets normalization with Israel, yet he refuses to contribute real military weight when the moment arrives to crush the primary driver of regional instability.

Furthermore, Riyadh’s evasive stance creates a dangerous strategic asymmetry across the Middle East. Tehran knows that Israel possesses the political will to strike directly at its strategic capabilities when necessary. However, the Iranian regime also knows that the Arab Gulf states remain deeply terrified of full-scale regional escalation.

This realization allows Iran to divide the coalition opposed to its regional hegemony. Tehran can calibrate its aggressive actions, applying intense direct pressure on Israel while offering diplomatic backchannels to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. When Saudi Arabia confines its military operations strictly to foreign soil, it emboldens the ayatollahs to concentrate their belligerence against Israel.

The strategic delusion that proxy containment equals security must be thoroughly dismantled. Recent events demonstrate that localized strikes on militia outposts will never deter Iran from launching attacks across the region. Every time Saudi Arabia chooses to strike an Iraqi militia base instead of threatening Iranian sovereign targets, Tehran chalks up another diplomatic victory.

Israel must draw realistic conclusions from this dynamic as it formulates its long-term strategy. Normalization with Saudi Arabia remains a valuable objective, but Israeli leaders cannot afford to view Riyadh through naive lenses. A security relationship built on Saudi hesitation will never provide Israel with true strategic depth. If Saudi Arabia wants to be recognized as a genuine regional leader, it must demonstrate a willingness to share the real risks of direct confrontation. Until then, Israel must rely on its own operational independence to permanently break the Iranian threat. If the House of Saud remains unwilling to cross that threshold, Israel will do whatever is necessary to protect its own future.

Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx.